Welcome to July, typically the hottest month of the year in Colorado. More specifically, the 12th through the 24th is climatologically the peak of summer temperature-wise in Colorado Springs as the average high temperature tops out at 85 degrees. In Pueblo, the stretch is a little longer and the average high reaches 92 from the 9th through the 27th.

Our threat for tornadoes drops quite a bit this month as the atmosphere tends to become stagnant, but its this stagnation that eventually allows the monsoon to get going as moisture from thunderstorms over the mountain ranges of central Mexico gets recycled each afternoon and gradually moves northward into the desert southwest and Colorado. This usally happens toward the tail-end of the month or into August. Its during this time that flash flooding becomes a major concern as slow moving thunderstorms capable of dropping copious amounts of rainfall in a short period of time become possible over our region. Exercise caution when recreating in canyons, river beds and other low-lying areas (like dry washes) as they can become violent rivers in an instant.

Speaking of moisture, now is a good time to look at how we’re doing so far this year. You can probably guess that its not very good with the recent rash of wildfires we’ve had (a pretty good sign that we’re dry) both in the mountains and on the high plains. The 2.92″ of rain we’ve officially collected at the Colorado Springs Airport is well below the average rainfall of 8.04″ by more than 5″. In Pueblo, we’re 1.75″ short of the average rainfall through June of 5.63″ as we’ve measured just under 4″. 

With all of the storm systems and their associated pools of colder air rolling over the area this spring I sometimes find I’m surprised at how little moisture we actually have had.  The short of a pretty long winded reason is that the systems were often too strong and swept the low level moisture away from the area, or they just didn’t track favorably for us.  Sometimes the subtle systems produce the heavier precipitation in the spring.  It is not unusual for us to be pretty dry late in June and early in July as isolated, but at times strong thunderstorms are our dominant suppliers of rainfall.  Speaking of subtle, there are some subtle signs that the summer monsoon is beginning to develop.  Note the water vapor image below:

The milky white areas denote moisture aloft, you can see clouds too but not all of the milky white is cloud cover.  I have outlined a “plume” of moisture overhead, same moisture that has supported many of the dry thunderstorms across the area during the last week or so.  A strong cold front is responsible for some of the moisture over the deep south, but our primary moisture source for the summer monsoon is skyward transport of low level moisture due to thunderstorms, mainly over Mexico, and to a lesser but still significant extent over the high plains and mountains in the western US.  Thunderstorms constantly are developing over the mountains in Mexico during the spring and summer months,   These thunderstorms throw large amounts of moisture skyward, but the strong spring storm systems are efficient at moving this moisture away from the area as they track across the continental US.  Over time the strong spring storm systems weaken/move north and the air stagnates overhead, this then allows the moisture overhead associated with daily thunderstorms to increase, and over a period of several weeks/months the moisture gets pretty thick.  Around here the latter half of July through early September usually brings us our best chances for widespread, heavy rainfall, the monsoon ends with the arrival of the first stronger, fall systems.  The monsoon isn’t real well established yet, but it is nice to see the process that generates it underway as we all know that we could really use some rain.  Hang tight a couple more weeks and we’ll see how it all ends up…

We had a number of thunderstorms today in the mountains west of Pueblo.  Some of these storms were just heavy rain and lightning producers, but there was also a good number of them that were hail producers.

Colorado has one of the highest number of hail days per year in the United States.  The reason for this is the elevation.  The higher the elevation, the closer you are to the cold layers of the upper atmosphere.  When a hail stone falls, it starts to melt when it goes through layers of above freezing temperatures.  If it’s a deep layer of warm air, the hail will have a better chance of melting down to non-threatening raindrops.  So hail that wouldn’t normally reach the surface in a low elevation area, has a better chance of reaching the surface in higher elevations.

The Nash Ranch Fire east of Guffey is still burning tonight but there is good news; as of right now the fire is 50% contained and some rain showers are helping it out.

The cold front that came through brought a cold/moist airmass which is a big help in fighting this fire.  Humidities are high and the winds have not been very gusty.  Tomorrow will still be on the cooler side and there will be another chance for some spotty mountain rain showers/storms.  The good news is more rain can help fire fighting efforts…the bad news is with storms comes lightning, which is what was thought to have started this fire in the first place. 

Not much rhyme or reason to this posting…just a few thoughts as we get the weekend started. First of all, I’m looking forward to catching up on some sleep. If you tuned in during the mornings at all this week, you noticed I was filling in for Marty. Let me just say I don’t know how the guy does it. I feel drained after just one week of getting into work at 3:30 a.m. I should be used to it considering I work those hours on the weekend and had Marty’s shift at my old station in Ohio. I just don’t think the human body is meant for waking up that early.

Secondly, yesterday’s forecast turned out to be somewhat of a bummer. All signs were pointing in the direction of severe weather, but it never really amounted to much. It’s good in a way because severe weather can be dangerous, but at the same time severe weather is fun to track.

Finally, the wildfire east of Guffey is still burning. It’s believed to have been started by lightning. Coincidentally, today is the final day of Lightning Safety Awareness Week with today’s focus being on lightning and wildfires. You can read more by clicking here. The good news for firefighters today is we do have more moisture in the region and with a southeasterly flow, more of that moisture will head towards the mountains. STORMTRACKER 13 Futurecast is showing the potential for some showers and thunderstorms for late this afternoon and this evening. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Hopefully some of that hits near Teller County. 

Have a great weekend everyone! Time for me to take a nap…

As you can see by our photos from across the STORMTRACKER 13 Neighborhood Weather Network, it was another sunny and warm start to the day. These readings were taken from about 10:30 this morning. We have been tracking a cold front all week that we initially thought would work in by late morning/early afternoon today. As it turns out, the front slowed down a bit and the delayed frontal passage allowed us to have another very warm day.

Once the front passes through later this afternoon, we’ll see more moisture work into the region. As of 10:45, it was still dry around Colorado Springs with dewpoints in the 20s.

As the cool, moist air mass clashes with the dry warm air mass we have in place at the moment, we expect some showers and thunderstorms to develop. The potential does exist for severe weather with hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado possible. By late this afternoon, STORMTRACKER 13 Futurecast shows the strongest of the storms around the Limon area.

As always, stay tuned to NEWSCHANNEL 13 and log onto krdo.com for the latest and most dependable severe weather coverage.

The storms we’ve had the past couple of days have been very dry in nature, with only a couple of them turning severe for a very short period of time. Things are going to change a bit for tomorrow (Friday). A cold front looks to move through east central and southeast Colorado during the afternoon. There is some very moist air moving in behind this front which will give us a much better chance for thunderstorms with more moisture. This can be viewed as good and bad. Good because we will not have as much dry lightning potential which is what has been sparking so many wildfires. Bad because with the increased moisture we will have a much better chance for severe weather.

Expect some of the storms to produce large hail, damaging winds and a chance for an isolated tornado. Right now it looks like the best chance for severe weather will be in the areas shaded in yellow.

Stacey brought up some good points in her post last night about staying safe in regards to lightning. Many times we focus on the threats that lightning poses outdoors and forget about the danger that still exists in our own home during a thunderstorm. As Stacey mentioned, it is Lightning Safety Awareness week in the state of Colorado. Each day of the week has a different topic with today’s focus being on lightning safety indoors. There is a small percentage of people that are injured or even killed by lightning each year even though they are indoors. The best advice for being indoors during a thunderstorm is to observe the following:

-Avoid contact with corded phones, electrical equipment and plumbing. 

-Avoid contact with water such as taking a shower or doing laundry.

-Stay away from windows, doors and porches. 

-Do not lie on concrete floors or lean against concrete walls.

You can find more information about staying safe indoors during a thunderstorm by clicking here.

It’s Lightning Safety Week which is appropriate with the two police officers being struck near the Colorado Springs Airport yesterday.  We had another day today with isolated thunderstorms where lightning was the main threat.  
 
In the US an average of 62 people die due to lightning strikes. In 2007, 45 people were killed and hundreds of others injured. People struck by lightning can suffer from memory loss, attention deficits, sleep disorders, numbness, dizziness, stiffness of joints, irritability, fatigue, weakness, muscle spasms, depression and an inability to sit for long. Like I said in the previous post, remember the 30-30 Rule. If lightning occurs 30 seconds or less after thunder, go inside and don’t go back outside until 30 minutes after the last thunder.
For a full list of safety tips click here.

Well, we certainly started off the day with some warm temperatures. By 8:00 this morning, temperatures were already into the mid to upper 70s. By this afternoon, temperatures should be a good 10 degrees above average with highs into the 90s for many areas east of I-25.

Part of the reason for the warm-up is a ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere (see below). This ridge will likely keep the majority of us dry today and tomorrow, although we can’t completely rule out a few afternoon thunderstorms. Most of these storms will be dry again with little to no rain but windy conditions and lightning.

By Friday, a trough begins to build over the region. We’re tracking a cold front that will likely touch off some showers and storms Friday and Saturday along with dropping temperatures to more seasonal readings for the start of the weekend.

In the meantime, enjoy the sunshine and the warmth!