We’ve had a couple of thunderstorms this evening, mainly to the north and east of Colorado Springs.  But these storms are mainly rain and lightning producers.  We are not expecting these storms to turn severe.  However, it looks like it could be a different story Sunday afternoon. A low will be located over eastern Colorado forcing southeast winds to bring in moisture. That moisture will cause dewpoints to rise into the mid-50s. Instability will develop along the moisture axis creating storms over the eastern plains. With the combination of moisture, instability and significant wind shear, we could see severe storms that would produce large hail, damaging winds and even a possible tornado. Of course we will be tracking any storms that go up tomorrow afternoon here at STORMTRACKER 13.

I know..I know…there’s not much of a chance for hurricanes here in Colorado. I do know, however, that many people like to head to Florida for the summer months. So, I thought I might mention that the official start of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season kicks off tomorrow.

NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is projecting a near normal or above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year. For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes for which two reach major status.

Here’s hoping the outlook holds up and the season does not turn into another 2005 when a record 28 tropical and subtropical storms formed, of which a record 15 became hurricanes. Seven of those strengthened into major hurricanes, a record-tying five became Category 4 hurricanes and a record four reached Category 5 strength, the highest categorization for hurricanes. Does Katrina ring a bell??

While I would enjoy forecasting hurricanes, I don’t envy those reporters who have to cover them. One of my friends from college was a meteorologist/reporter in South Carolina. She told me that when she had to cover hurricanes, she had to use a rope to tie herself to a tree to avoid being blown away during her reports. Talk about scary!! I’ll take the Colorado tornadoes and thundersotrms any day. They’re more fun to watch anyway!

-Josh Poland

I’ve lived in Colorado for about 1year and 4 months and I’m starting to better tackle the forecast challenges here.  However, even though I’m better understanding how to forecast in Colorado, that doesn’t mean I know how to apply it to my garden!  This is my first garden ever!  I planted tomatoes, peppers, zucchini, some spices and strawberries.  I know if we are going to drop below freezing that I need to cover them, but is there anything else I need to worry about?  I really don’t know anything about gardening…I just decided to give it a whirl.  Those of you who have lived in Colorado for a while and know anything about gardening, I could really use your help!  Plus…I just planted this stuff yesterday…Is it too late in the season to start these vegetables?

The dryline, the dividing line between rich low level moisture to the east and drier air to the west, is going to be the focal point for thunderstorm development into the evening. As of 4:50, a few thunderstorms have already developed on this line and become severe in southeastern Colorado, but the best moisture has been just to the east and our storms have weakened within about 45 minutes of developing. I’ll continue to track the better low-level moisture in western Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico and if it moves in the southeastern corner we’ll get a bit more active.

One of the tools I’ll use for this is the visible satellite as the cumulus clouds in the visible satellite image help to trace out where the dryline is.

Yuck!  As I type here it is sunny in Castle Rock and Trinidad, getting there in Woodland Park and obviously not here.  Here are 2 images from the STORMTRACKER 13 Neighborhood Weather Network.  You can see the low clouds/fog receding down the canyon (right side of the image) below Ute Pass with the “City Above the Clouds” living up to its reputation.  On the other hand, potentially disappointed attendees around the Air Force Academy hoping to see the Thunderbirds are treated to conditions similar to those seen in Monument.  The folks flying the Thunderbirds know what they’re doing, I don’t claim to be party to those decisions, maybe they’ll get in the air after all, we’ll hope so!

So what it the reason for the shallow layer of grunge?  Cool air combined with surface moisture courtesy of the Gulf of Mexico and an upslope flow.  The lifting of moisture laiden air results in the clouds, and because the upslope flow continues to create the clouds this morning the sun is having a hard time burning it off.  Eventually we’ll clear out, but Colorado Springs will be the last area to do so as the lifted, moist air is crammed up against the higher terrain surrounding the area.  Check out the visible satellite imagery below, shows the localization of the thick clouds between the Arkansas River and the Palmer Divide (Monument Hill), bounded on the west by the mountains…

The tornado that destroyed Parkersburg Iowa on Sunday was rated an EF5 tornado by the Des Moines National Weather Service office Tuesday. It is only the sixth F or EF5 tornado in the history of Iowa and the first since 1976. To date, 6 people were killed by the twister. Below are some of the pictures that the Des Moines office took while doing the damage survey.

It didn’t end up being the stormy Memorial Day that I was thinking it was going to be.  The cold front moved in a little earlier than expected which kept temperatures on the cooler side throughout the day.  It originally looked like there was going to be some severe weather on the eastern plains, but it was too cool and stable for anything to develop.  The dewpoints were high enough and there was enough wind shear, but not enough instability.  So what we were left with was a lot of clouds, cooler temperatures and a couple of showers over the mountains and foothills west of Denver.  There will still be a chance for a couple of showers tonight and through the day Tuesday.

And for the families of those brave men and women, past and present, thank you also for your continued support…

Marty V

Well I hope everyone was able to enjoy the first two days of the holiday weekend!  Saturday and Sunday ended up being pretty nice, but a cold front is going to make things “not so nice” for Memorial Day.  If you are planning afternoon outdoor picnics, you might want to come up with a back-up plan.  A cold front is going to start pushing through the area Monday morning, which is than originally expected.  This is going to drop temperatures about 10 degrees, bring mostly cloudy skies and a chance for severe thunderstorms.  Right now it looks like the biggest threat with these storms will be hail, but we are not ruling the chance for isolated tornadoes.  The best chance for severe weather will be on the plains, but everyone will have that chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Good Luck with your picnics!  Hope the storms miss you!

Right after we got word of the Tornado, my photographer James and I got on the road to head to Windsor.  James and I had both covered the Holly tornado last year and were expecting a very similar situation.  However, that was not the case.  The 2-hour drive was smooth, but the frustration started once we got into town.  Since Holly is such a small town, we were in the destruction as soon we got there.  There were very few restrictions as to where we could go and what we could do.  For a reporter, that makes for good storytelling!  This was not the case in Windsor.  It was very difficult to get information; there were so many road blocks that we couldn’t get close to the worst destruction.  We had to stay on the outskirts of the worst damage.  So we saw a whole lot of downed trees, downed fences and roof damage; not the destruction we were hearing about over the scanners.  We ended up getting a pretty good story with a local gas station who had people taking cover in the bathrooms and coolers, but it was still a very frustrating day trying to get information and good video!